Serve Robotics is positioning itself as a first-mover in autonomous sidewalk delivery, targeting short-distance, high-frequency urban trips where robots can replace costly car-based delivery. The company, spun out of Uber in 2021, has since built a vertically integrated platform combining hardware, autonomy software and fleet operations. As of the third quarter of 2025, Serve Robotics had crossed a critical scale milestone with more than 1,000 robots deployed, operating across five major U.S. metros and serving over 3,600 restaurants.Operational momentum has been strong. In the third quarter of 2025, delivery volume grew 66% sequentially, while revenues rose 209% year over year to $687,000, reflecting rapid fleet expansion and higher utilization. Management emphasized that scaling beyond 1,000 robots materially improves economics, as utilization increases and learning effects compound across the fleet. Serve Robotics? robots have achieved near-perfect delivery completion rates, reinforcing the reliability of its autonomy stack in dense urban environments.Strategically, Serve Robotics benefits from deep partnerships. Uber remains its largest shareholder and a key commercial partner, while DoorDash joined in 2025 through a multi-year agreement that significantly expands Serve Robotics? addressable order volume. The company also works with NVIDIA as a long-time technical partner, leveraging advances in AI compute to accelerate autonomy development. Recent acquisitions of Vayu Robotics and Phantom Auto are designed to strengthen Serve Robotics? AI foundation models and teleoperation capabilities, potentially lowering costs and expanding operational domains over time.However, the challenges are substantial. Serve Robotics remains deeply loss-making, with revenues still measured in the low single-digit millions annually. Scaling hardware fleets is capital-intensive, regulatory approvals vary city by city, and monetization depends on sustained order density. Despite management projecting roughly 10X revenue growth in 2026, the path to profitability remains uncertain, and execution risk is high.

Uber approaches autonomous delivery from the opposite direction: as an extension of a global, profitable platform rather than a standalone bet. In the third quarter of 2025, Uber delivered one of its strongest quarters ever, with trips up 22% year over year, gross bookings up 21%, and adjusted EBITDA rising 33% to $2.3 billion. Delivery remains a key growth engine, with Delivery gross bookings climbing 25% year over year, driven by both restaurant orders and the rapidly expanding Grocery & Retail segment.Uber?s autonomous strategy is deliberately hybrid. Management is integrating autonomous vehicles and delivery technologies into its marketplace while preserving flexibility by combining human drivers, robots and AV partners. Partnerships with companies like Waymo and NVIDIA are designed to ensure that Uber becomes the default demand layer for autonomy rather than owning all the hardware itself. This asset-light approach allows Uber to benefit from autonomy as costs fall, without bearing the full capital burden or regulatory risk upfront.Crucially, Uber?s scale creates powerful optionality. Cross-platform users?those engaging across Mobility, Delivery and Grocery?spend roughly three times more than single-product users, reinforcing network effects and lifetime value. Autonomous delivery, including robots like Serve Robotics?, can be layered into this ecosystem to improve unit economics without disrupting profitability. Unlike Serve Robotics, Uber is already generating substantial free cash flow, giving it flexibility to invest, partner or acquire as autonomy matures.That said, Uber?s size also limits explosive upside. Autonomous delivery represents a margin enhancer, not a transformational revenue driver in the near term. Regulatory scrutiny, competitive pressure and macro sensitivity remain ongoing risks. Still, Uber?s diversified model and execution consistency underpin a far more stable earnings outlook.

The divergence in fundamentals is reflected in stock performance. Serve Robotics shares have declined 25% year to date (YTD), reflecting investor caution around valuation, dilution risk and ongoing losses. In contrast, Uber stock has risen 32.1% YTD, significantly outperforming the S&P 500?s 16.2% gain over the same period. The market is clearly rewarding Uber?s profitability, scale and execution, while penalizing Serve Robotics? early-stage risk profile.

Valuation further highlights the contrast. On a forward 12-month price-to-sales basis, Serve Robotics trades at an elevated 35.05X, pricing in aggressive growth assumptions and long-term dominance in sidewalk delivery. Uber trades at a far more modest 2.76X forward sales, despite delivering strong double-digit revenue growth and robust margins. The gap underscores how much execution Serve Robotics must deliver to justify its multiple versus Uber?s valuation, anchored by current cash flows.

Earnings trends also favor Uber. Over the past 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for Serve Robotics? 2026 loss has widened to $1.79 per share from $1.66 despite forecasts calling for 781.4% revenue growth in 2026. The company is expected to incur a $1.66 loss in 2025. This highlights the disconnect between top-line growth and near-term profitability.

Uber, in contrast, is seeing positive revisions. Over the past 60 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for Uber?s 2026 EPS increased to $3.58 from $3.48, while the 2025 EPS estimate is pegged at $5.35. Revenues are projected to grow 16.1% in 2026, reinforcing confidence in Uber?s earnings durability.